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市场分析
市场分析 articles from PremiumRea.
58 articles
- 7 April 202611 min read·Joey Don
Melbourne Has More Flat, Buildable Land Than Any City in Australia. Here's Why That Matters.
Melbourne has more flat buildable land than any Australian city. This geographic fact creates both sprawl and scarcity — and the smartest investors play the scarcity side.
- 1 April 202612 min read·Joey Don
The ATO Is Effectively Lending You Money to Buy Property. Here's the Maths.
The ATO is not your enemy. It is your silent business partner. Here is how high-income earners use negative gearing to build portfolios that the government partially funds.
- 26 March 202611 min read·Joey Don
Everyone Tells You to Buy Brisbane. The State's Balance Sheet Says Otherwise.
I am about to become very unpopular with the Brisbane property influencer crowd. But someone needs to say this, and the numbers do not lie.
- 20 March 2026约 11 分钟阅读·Joey Don
Melbourne 反弹了。你还在等,就已经晚了。
三年。我等了整整三年。Melbourne 的回调过程残酷、乏味,对真正在看的人来说却很美。反弹已经开始,便宜的城区领跑。
- 14 March 202611 min read·Joey Don
We Bought 100 Houses in Melbourne Last Year. Every Single One Is Cash-Flow Positive.
While everyone was doom-scrolling about Melbourne's property market, we were buying. Nearly 100 houses in 2024. Average return: 14%. Every single one cash-flow positive after our renovation playbook.
- 8 March 2026约 11 分钟阅读·Joey Don
Melbourne 2025 上半场:用数据把每一个空头拍回去
如果你还在跟别人说 Melbourne 在跌,说明你从 1 月开始就没看过数字。光是 2025 年 5 月,独立屋就涨了 0.8%,年化 9.6%。下面告诉你钱到底去了哪里。
- 2 March 202611 min read·Joey Don
Australia Is Structurally a Resource Economy. That's Why Property Is Your Best Bet.
I had coffee with a Chinese tech investor last week. He'd been in Australia for a year and was stunned: 'There's nothing productive to invest in here. Just cafes, bottle shops, and car washes.' He's r
- 24 February 2026约 11 分钟阅读·Joey Don
我大学同学 25 岁买了套 $700K 的自住房。这笔交易让他损失了 200 万澳元
他是我精算系同届里最聪明的那个。刚毕业就拿六位数年薪。他买了一套自住房,结果这成了他这辈子最贵的一个决定——不是因为房子跌了,而是因为它让他没法做别的事。
- 18 February 202611 min read·Joey Don
Everyone Says the Economy Is Terrible. Here's Why You Should Buy Property Anyway.
Your mate just got laid off. The cafe down the street closed. The news says recession is coming. And Melbourne house prices posted their strongest quarter in three years. Something doesn't add up — un
- 10 February 2026约 12 分钟阅读·Joey Don
你的银行账户每年亏 $740。这六类资产才真正跑赢通胀。
银行告诉你 4.5% 的利息就是在增值。可真算下来,扣掉税和通胀,每 $100,000 一年要亏 $740。我把六类资产的账仔细算了一遍,真正能守住财富的只有两类。
- 2 February 202610 min read·Joey Don
My Mate Waited for Rate Cuts. He Got Lower Rates and a $100K Bigger Mortgage.
If you're holding off buying because you expect rates to drop, you need to hear what happened to George. He waited. He got his 2% rate. And he paid $100,000 more for the exact same house.
- 25 January 202611 min read·Joey Don
Perth Property Boomed 89% in 5 Years. That's Exactly Why I Wouldn't Buy There Now.
Perth's numbers look incredible. 89% growth in five years. But a Perth developer with 20 years of experience just told me: don't buy. The cycle data says he's right.
- 17 January 202610 min read·Joey Don
A $700K Melbourne House Actually Costs $756,000. Here Are the 6 Hidden Fees.
My mate nearly had a meltdown the week before settlement. He'd budgeted for the deposit. He hadn't budgeted for the other $56,000.
- 9 January 202612 min read·Joey Don
Inflation Bounced Back. Unemployment Dropped. So Why Does Everyone Feel Broke?
The economic data says Australia is booming. Your bank account says otherwise. I pulled apart the numbers to find out which one is lying — and what it means for property.
- 1 January 202611 min read·Joey Don
Stop Chasing Brisbane. The Value Play Is Still in Melbourne.
Brisbane has doubled in 4 years. Melbourne is 20-25% cheaper than Sydney. One city is at the top of its cycle. The other is at the bottom. The data says which to buy.
- 24 December 2025约 11 分钟阅读·Joey Don
维州为什么砸钱升级一座警察局(以及这件事对投资者意味着什么)
维州 2023 年唯一一笔警察局升级投资落在了 Narre Warren。原因:他们在打造一个卫星城枢纽。这条基建管线在告诉房产价值什么信号。
- 16 December 202511 min read·Joey Don
Melbourne's Southeast Is in a Rental Crisis. That's Why Prices Are Rising.
Vacancy below 1.5%, open inspections with 30+ groups, rents up 15% in 12 months. How Melbourne's southeast rental shortage is pushing house prices higher.
- 8 December 2025约 11 分钟阅读·Joey Don
Melbourne 在跌——但某些城区其实在悄悄上涨
标题说 Melbourne 房产在跌。数据说的是另一回事:结果完全取决于你买在了哪个城区。
- 30 November 202511 min read·Joey Don
Australia Has 26 Days of Diesel Left. What That Means for Property Investors.
Twenty-six days. That is how much diesel Australia has in reserve. The country has two refineries. They supply 20% of finished fuel demand. The other 80% arrives on ships from overseas. If those ships
- 23 November 202510 min read·Joey Don
Australia's 'New Poor': $2M House, BMW X5, and Technically Bankrupt
I've started calling them the 'high-net-worth poor'. On paper, millionaires. In practice, one unexpected car repair away from a margin call on their life. If that sounds dramatic, wait until I show yo
- 15 November 202512 min read·Joey Don
We Built a Three-Property Portfolio Across Melbourne in 90 Days. Here's the Full Playbook.
A Sydney-based investor with holdings across Australia came to us with one gap in his portfolio: Melbourne. No time to fly down every weekend. Needed a team that could find, buy, renovate, and manage—
- 7 November 2025约 12 分钟阅读·Joey Don
墨尔本投资 $600K，到底该买在哪里？一份直白的答案
$600,000 澳元在墨尔本以前能给你不少选择，今天买到的是风险。年初还是 $580K 的城区，现在已经 $650K。预算如果没跟上市场，你的容错空间已经被压到几乎没有。
- 30 October 202511 min read·Joey Don
The Flipping Bonanza Is Over. Property Investment Is a Business Now.
The era of buying any property and watching it appreciate 20% in twelve months is done. What replaces it is harder, more disciplined, and infinitely more profitable for the people who treat property l
- 22 October 202512 min read·Joey Don
I Studied 13 Quarters of Tasmanian Data. The Population Numbers Are Brutal.
Everyone who got their green card through Tasmania left for Melbourne or Sydney. I know a hundred people who moved back to Melbourne from Tassie. I don't know a single person who went the other direct
- 14 October 202512 min read·Joey Don
Stop Telling Me Tasmania Is the Next Big Thing. It Isn't.
Every few months someone sends me a Domain article about Hobart's property boom and asks whether they should buy there. My answer hasn't changed in five years: no. Let me show you why the numbers don'
- 6 October 2025约 11 分钟阅读·Joey Don
现金正在融化。房产投资者就是靠这一点变成赢家的。
你的存款账户其实什么都没存下来。你拿 4% 利息的时候,购买力却在以 6% 下掉。真正在这个环境下变得更有钱的人,是很早就想明白一件事:通胀奖励借钱的人,不是攒钱的人。
- 28 September 20259 min read·Yan Zhu
One Number Tells You If a Suburb Will Boom or Flatline for a Decade
There's a single data point that predicted Glen Waverley's stagnation, Box Hill's decline, and Hampton Park's outperformance. It takes three minutes to calculate.
- 13 September 2025约 11 分钟阅读·Joey Don
正在悄悄吞噬澳洲中产财富的三个陷阱
每个月,我都会看到又一个勤勤恳恳的家庭在往后退。不是因为运气差,是因为三个决定——表面上看很聪明,底下却在吞噬财富。坐在我对面的客户够多,我能把这个规律看得很清楚。
- 5 September 2025约 14 分钟阅读·Joey Don
澳洲会不会复制日本 90 年代的房地产崩盘?我花了 20 个小时比对数据
总有人说澳洲房市是一颗等着爆掉的泡沫,就像 1990 年代的日本。我决定认真去核对一下。20 个小时的数据看下来,答案比唱衰派和唱多派愿意让你相信的都要复杂。
- 29 August 2025约 14 分钟阅读·Yan Zhu
我怎么在下手买房之前,把全澳洲的城区都过一遍
大多数投资者选城区靠感觉——朋友在哪买过、自己长在哪里、网上哪篇文章说「这里要起飞」。我靠的是四个数字。下面是撑起我们 350 多宗墨尔本成交的那套具体筛选框架。
- 20 August 2025约 10 分钟阅读·Yan Zhu
墨尔本「全球最宜居城市」的牌子,其实是个笑话——数据说了算
我在 Melbourne 住了十四年。宜居排名一年接一年出炉,街边的流浪帐篷、超市的鸡蛋短缺、周末的反移民游行也一年接一年。这里面有东西对不上号,数据也印证了这一点。
- 12 August 2025约 13 分钟阅读·Yan Zhu
Debt Recycling:我如何把 $100K 澳元的「死」自住房贷,变成一年 $2,800 澳元的退税
你的自住房贷其实比你想的要贵。不是因为利率高——虽然它确实不低。真正的原因是:你付出的每一块利息,都是用税后收入付的。与此同时,你那个拿着投资贷款的邻居,付着完全一样的利息,却能把它全部当作抵税项。同一家银行。同一个利率。完全不同的税务结果。十年下来,差距会大到吓人。
- 4 August 2025约 12 分钟阅读·Joey Don
你用 ChatGPT 找房的姿势全错了：AI 看不见的街道级数据
悉尼一位科技公司 CEO 把 320GB 的基因组数据喂给 ChatGPT，设计出一套癌症治疗方案，把自家狗的肿瘤缩小了 75%。结果确实惊人。现在换个角度想一下：你用 AI 找投资房的时候，到底喂给它多少数据？就一句话？问题就在这。
- 27 July 202513 min read·Yan Zhu
Why the Smartest Property Investors in Australia Never Repay Their Mortgage
A 30-year-old client walked into our office with 15 properties, $10M in mortgage debt, and zero intention of ever repaying a single dollar of principal. He wasn't reckless. He was doing the maths corr
- 19 July 2025约 10 分钟阅读·Joey Don
卖方中介嘴里这四句话,一听到就该掉头走
卖方中介受过专门训练,目的只有一个:从买家口袋里掏出尽可能高的成交价。在买方位置上做了 350 多笔交易之后,我总结出四句每一次听到都意味着你要多付钱的话。
- 12 July 2025约 10 分钟阅读·Joey Don
我们的 AI 用一小时找到了一套低估 $100K 的房产。我花了三天才相信这是真的。
我做专业买家已经很多年。我的职业生涯建立在比 Google Maps 还熟 Melbourne 街道的功夫上。可是上个月,一段软件在六十分钟里找到一笔交易,而我要是自己找,可能得花一周——还不一定找得到。那一刻改变了我看这个行业的方式。
- 4 July 2025约 9 分钟阅读·Joey Don
REA 里那个免费功能:让你监控整条街上的每一套房
不管你有没有在澳洲持有房产,REA app 里都有一个免费功能,绝大多数人没听过。它会在你所在街上——或者你选定的任何一条街上——有房产挂牌的那一刻立即给你推送。下面是具体怎么设置。
- 24 June 2025约 11 分钟阅读·Yan Zhu
两颗正在重塑澳洲房产的隐形炸弹——建造成本与税改
高利率不是澳洲房产现在最糟的事。两颗隐形炸弹——失控的建造成本和正在逼近的税改——正在叠加成一场供给危机,把更高的房价与租金锁进未来好几年。
- 23 June 2025约 11 分钟阅读·Yan Zhu
我是澳洲中产。显然这让我成了个傻子。
打开网就看到有人在嘲笑中产阶级想过好点的生活。升级房子？不负责任。伴侣在家带娃？乱来。私立学校？活该。从什么时候开始，想过一份体面的生活成了人格缺陷？
- 8 June 2025约 11 分钟阅读·Yan Zhu
卖投资房的三个正当理由(以及背后那条黄金法则)
会买,能让你赚钱;会卖,才能让你守住钱。这篇讲的是卖投资房真正说得通的三种情形——以及凌驾于这三种情形之上的那一条指标。
- 7 June 202511 min read·Joey Don
Why Paying Cash for Investment Property Is the Most Expensive Mistake You Can Make
I have clients who can afford to pay cash for investment property. And I talk every single one of them out of it. Not because borrowing is fun. Because the maths makes paying cash genuinely irrational
- 6 May 202511 min read·Yan Zhu
The Property Kill Line: What Happens When Prices Drop 20%. Two Australian Cities Found Out.
When property prices drop 20 per cent from their peak, most leveraged investors lose their entire equity buffer. I call it the kill line. Two Australian cities have crossed it. Here is what the data r
- 29 April 202511 min read·Yan Zhu
Over 100 Five-Star Reviews Later, Here's Exactly What We Do Differently
People keep asking what makes our buyer's agency different. After helping 350+ clients build property portfolios across Melbourne, I figured it was time to write it all down in one place. No fluff. Ju
- 21 January 2025约 10 分钟阅读·Yan Zhu
还在用"离 CBD 多远"来选城区?你已经落后了整整十年
我一直听到同一种过时的建议:"买离市区近的就不会错。"这句话在 1990 年是对的,在今天已经不对了。墨尔本连一半的劳动力都不往 CBD 通勤,其中绝大多数人一周也不去五天。为什么卫星城区和本地就业中心,比你离 Flinders Street 站的距离更重要。
- 26 November 2024约 11 分钟阅读·Yan Zhu
Frankston 550 平米 $740K:我从每个角度分析了一遍,结论在这儿
Frankston 正在迎来它的时刻。三月的新分区,十亿级的医院扩建,中位价还在 $800K 以下。一位订阅者让我帮忙分析一套 550 平米、$740K 的挂牌房。数据真的很让人兴奋——只是直升机航线这一项稍微有点麻烦。
- 1 October 202411 min read·Yan Zhu
Mount Waverley, Heritage Overlay, $1.5 Million. Here Is What Most Buyers Miss.
Mount Waverley is one of those suburbs that photographs well, schools well, and prices terribly for investors. But this particular property has a wrinkle that most people will either miss entirely or
- 6 August 2024约 11 分钟阅读·Yan Zhu
在墨尔本用 $700K 买独立屋该去哪?两个没人提起的城区。
大多数人默认 $700,000 的预算在墨尔本就意味着要进 growth corridor,在工地边上挑一套 house-and-land package。这个假设是错的。有两个成熟城区,数据画像非常出色,$700,000 能买到带地的独立屋。没人聊它们。我今天来改变这一点。
- 11 June 202411 min read·Yan Zhu
6 Sweet Gum Avenue: The Narre Warren Property Paying $935 a Week After One Addition
When we settled on 6 Sweet Gum Avenue, the numbers were already decent. A three-bedroom house on 620 square metres in one of Narre Warren's quieter pockets, purchased for $762,000. Rent as-is would ha
- 16 April 202410 min read·Yan Zhu
Your Investment Property Gained $200K. Here's How Much You Actually Keep.
Everyone loves talking about capital gains. Nobody loves talking about what happens when you try to take those gains out of the property and put them in your pocket. I ran the numbers on a $200,000 ca
- 20 February 202411 min read·Joey Don
Why You Must Inspect a Luxury Property Twice Before Bidding (Lessons From a $1.8M Mistake)
I stood in the living room of a property in Canterbury that had been marketed as a four-bedroom family home with 'stunning period features.' The marketing photos looked brilliant. The walk-through vid
- 26 December 202312 min read·Yan Zhu
A Granny Flat Is Not a Building. It Is a Financial Product That Returns 18% Per Year.
Most people think of a granny flat as a small building in the backyard. A place for an elderly parent to live, maybe. A teenager's retreat. Something quaint and modest. I think of a granny flat as a l
- 3 October 2023约 10 分钟阅读·Yan Zhu
社交媒体正在杀死临街零售物业。聪明的投资者改买什么。
老规矩很简单：买人流最大的那间店铺。但当一条 KOL 帖子带来的客人比一整年的路人还多时,整套商业地产投资逻辑都要改写。下面说应该改买什么。
- 8 August 202312 min read·Joey Don
I Never Sell Property. Here Is the Maths Behind 'Buy, Borrow, Die.'
My entire investment philosophy boils down to two words: don't sell. People think I am joking. I am not. I am making money. Especially when markets feel uncertain, this principle becomes even more pow
- 13 June 202310 min read·Joey Don
You Are Not Tired. You Are Overthinking. Here Is the Mental Framework That Changed Everything.
I finally figured out why I felt perpetually drained. It was not lack of sleep or too much work. I was thinking during action and acting during thought. The moment I separated the two, everything chan
- 1 December 2022约 11 分钟阅读·Joey Don
我认识的每一位资深投资者现在都在买 Melbourne,原因如下
在业内活动上我反复听到同一套话:Melbourne 完蛋了,别碰,去买 Perth。然后我看着那些说这话的人,悄悄把自己的钱投到 Melbourne 东南区。公开叙事和私下行为之间的断层,从没这么大过。
- 5 April 2022约 10 分钟阅读·Joey Don
我不再听身边所有人的意见之后,组合就爆了。
这些年做房产最难的事,不是谈下 $40K 澳元的折扣,也不是处理噩梦般的租客。是告诉家人不要再给我投资建议。就这一个决定,改变了一切。
- 8 August 2021约 11 分钟阅读·Joey Don
他把 $800K 的 super 花在了一套错的房子上:他犯的每一个错误
他以为 600 平米够做分割开发。其实不够。他在不了解限制的情况下把房产放进了 SMSF。然后他计划的装修本会触发违规处罚。
- 11 December 202010 min read·Joey Don
What Ten Years of Work Taught Me About Property, People, and Building Something Real
I left a blockchain company where I grew a department from 5 to 25 people and generated $1.7 million USD in revenue. My boss thought I was crazy. Three years later, I still help him land deals. That a