Stop Chasing Brisbane. The Value Play Is Still in Melbourne.

I need to say something that's going to be unpopular with about half the property investment community: if you're buying in Brisbane right now, you're probably buying at the top.

I know. Brisbane has been the star performer. Prices have doubled in some corridors over the past four years. Every second Instagram property guru is posting about their Brisbane portfolio. The Olympics narrative is irresistible.

But property investment is about buying at the bottom of cycles, not the top. And every metric I track says Brisbane is at or near the top of its current cycle — while Melbourne is at or near the bottom of its current cycle.

Let me show you why.

Brisbane's growth has already happened

Brisbane house prices surged approximately 65-75% from 2020 to late 2023. That's an extraordinary run by any standard. But extraordinary runs don't continue indefinitely — they're followed by periods of consolidation or decline. Always. Without exception.

Here's the structural problem: Brisbane's Gross Regional Product is approximately 5% of Melbourne's. The city's economic base is narrower, more dependent on resources and construction, and more vulnerable to external shocks. Yet Brisbane's median house price has now caught or exceeded Melbourne's in several comparable suburb bands.

When a city with 5% of the economic output of another city has equivalent house prices, something has to give. Either Brisbane's economy needs to grow dramatically to justify the pricing, or the pricing needs to correct to match the economic fundamentals. History overwhelmingly favours the second outcome.

Melbourne, by contrast, has been flat or declining for three years. It's now priced 20-25% below Sydney on comparable properties and has convergence potential with Brisbane prices. The negative media narrative has suppressed investor demand, creating a buyer's market with genuine negotiation leverage.

"Property markets are a rotation. Perth peaked in 2007 and went sideways for a decade. Sydney peaked in 2017 and corrected for two years. Brisbane is peaking now. Melbourne is bottoming now. The cycle doesn't care about Olympics narratives." — Joey Don

The numbers that matter

Let me compare what $700,000 buys you in each city.

Brisbane ($700K):

• Location: 25-30km from CBD (outer ring)
• Land size: 400-500sqm (new estates, minimal character)
• Rental yield: approximately 4%
• Vacancy rate: 1.5-2%
• 5-year forward growth probability: uncertain — already at cycle peak

Melbourne southeast ($700K):

• Location: 35-40km from CBD (established suburbs)
• Land size: 600-650sqm (character homes, subdivision potential)
• Rental yield: 4-6% (higher with multi-tenancy conversion)
• Vacancy rate: below 1.5%
• 5-year forward growth probability: strong — at cycle bottom with rate cuts incoming

For the same money, Melbourne gives you 30-50% more land, equivalent or better rental yield, tighter vacancy, and a cyclical position that favours appreciation rather than consolidation.

And here's the kicker: Melbourne's land tax — the factor most often cited as the reason to avoid Victoria — adds approximately $2,000 per year on a $700K property. Over 10 years, that's $20,000. If Melbourne outperforms Brisbane by just 0.5% per annum in capital growth (which it has done in multiple decade-long periods historically), the extra growth more than covers the extra tax.

Paying $20,000 in extra tax to capture $50,000-$100,000 in extra growth is a trade I make every day of the week.

The contrarian case for Melbourne

Smart investors buy when others are selling. Every property fortune I've studied — and I've studied a lot of them — was built by buying into markets that other people were avoiding.

Melbourne in 2023 has the exact profile of a contrarian opportunity:

• Negative media sentiment (✓)
• Price declines from peak creating affordable entry points (✓)
• Structural supply constraint in established suburbs (✓)
• Rate-cutting cycle on the horizon (✓)
• Interstate capital potentially repatriating from overpriced Brisbane/Perth (✓)

Brisbane in 2023 has the exact profile of a momentum exhaustion:

• Universally positive media sentiment (✓)
• Prices at all-time highs with no buffer (✓)
• New supply pipeline still active in growth corridors (✓)
• Rate-cutting cycle would help but prices have already captured the expectation (✓)
• Capital inflows slowing as affordability deteriorates (✓)

I'm not telling you to sell your Brisbane properties. If you bought three years ago, congratulations — you made excellent timing decisions. But rolling those gains into more Brisbane property is doubling down at the top. Taking profits from Brisbane and deploying them into Melbourne is the rotation play that smart institutional money is already making.

"I've had four clients in the past two months cash out Brisbane properties at peak values and redeploy the capital into Melbourne's southeast. Two of them used the equity to buy two Melbourne properties for the price of one Brisbane exit. That's the power of counter-cyclical thinking." — Joey Don