Auctions Are Won Before They Start. Three Steps the Insiders Use.

Every weekend across Melbourne, thousands of people stand on nature strips watching auctions. Most of them have done zero preparation beyond checking the price guide on realestate.com.au and deciding they'll "see how it goes."

That's like showing up to a chess tournament having only learned how the pieces move. You're technically playing, but you've already lost.

Auction outcomes are 90% determined before the auctioneer opens their mouth. The valuation research, the agent intelligence, and the competitor analysis — that's the work that separates buyers who get properties at fair value from buyers who overpay by $50,000 and spend five years catching up to their purchase price.

I'm going to share three pre-auction steps that our team executes on every single property we bid on. The last one is a tactic that most private buyers have never considered — and it's saved our clients hundreds of thousands of dollars.

Step one: build an independent valuation (don't trust the price guide)

The price guide on a property listing is marketing material, not a valuation. Agents deliberately set price guides below market value to attract more buyer enquiry and create competitive tension at auction. It's legal, it's common practice, and it catches unprepared buyers every time 1.

Here's how to build your own independent valuation in about an hour:

CoreLogic automated valuation: Go to corelogic.com.au and pull the automated valuation for the property. This gives you a statistical estimate based on recent comparable sales, land size, and suburb medians. It's not perfect — automated valuations can be off by 10-15% — but it establishes a baseline 2.

Comparable sales analysis: On realestate.com.au, filter for sold properties in the same suburb, with the same number of bedrooms, similar land size, within the past 12 months. Sort by most recent. Look for three to five genuine comparables.

Now adjust. Is the subject property on a bigger block? Add $30-50K. Is it on a busier road? Subtract $20-30K. Has it been recently renovated versus original condition? Adjust accordingly. This manual adjustment on top of the automated valuation gives you a much more accurate fair value estimate.

The golden rule: Your bid limit should be your independent valuation, not the agent's price guide. If your valuation says $750,000 and the price guide says $680,000-$720,000, your maximum bid is $750,000 — not "a bit more because the guide is $720K and I'm willing to stretch."

The moment you start bidding based on how other bidders are behaving, rather than your pre-determined valuation, you've lost the discipline that protects you from overpaying.

Step two: research the selling agent's psychology

This is the step that surprises most people. You're not just buying a property — you're navigating a negotiation with a human being who has their own incentives, pressures, and patterns.

Go to the agent's profile on realestate.com.au. Look at their recent sales history. What's their average selling price? What types of properties do they typically handle? 1

Here's why this matters:

Scenario A: The agent usually sells $2-3 million properties. Your target is a $750,000 house. The commission on $750K is roughly $15,000. For an agent whose typical commission is $40,000-$60,000, this is a small deal. They won't fight hard for it. They want it done and off their books so they can focus on bigger listings.

This is your opportunity. Contact the agent before auction and make a strong pre-auction offer. Ask them to present it to the vendor as a bird-in-the-hand. An agent who wants to clear a small listing quickly will often advocate for your offer, because the alternative — running an auction that might not reach reserve — is a waste of their Saturday.

Scenario B: The agent usually sells $500-800K properties and this listing is at the top of their range. This is their trophy listing. They want the auction to run. They want the drama, the competing bidders, the record-setting sale that they can use in future marketing. Pre-auction offers will be harder to land here — but not impossible if the vendor is motivated.

Our team regularly convinces agents to cancel auctions and negotiate private sales. It's not manipulation — it's understanding that the agent, like every other participant in the transaction, is a rational actor responding to incentives. Align your approach with their incentives, and the door opens.

"Not every property listed for auction will actually go to auction," says Yan Zhu. "If you can present a compelling offer before auction day, and the agent has a reason to support it, you can eliminate competition entirely. We've done this dozens of times."

Step three: know your competitors (the spy game)

This is the insider step that nobody talks about.

If you're seriously interested in a suburb, you'll attend multiple open inspections over several weeks. You'll see the same faces repeatedly. The couple who always arrives five minutes early. The father-son team taking photos of the backyard. The woman with the clipboard asking the agent detailed questions.

These are your competitors. And during open inspections, they will inadvertently reveal information.

Listen to their conversations with the agent. People can't help themselves — they discuss their budget, their timeline, their situation. "We need to settle quickly because we've already sold our place." "Our limit is around $750K." "We're just looking at this one and the one down the road."

Every piece of information is an advantage. If you know a competitor's budget, you know how far they'll bid. If you know they're also interested in another property, you know their attention is split. If you know they need a fast settlement, you can structure your offer to match (or undercut) that advantage 3.

I'm not suggesting you eavesdrop aggressively or behave unethically. I'm suggesting you pay attention. At open inspections, most people are so focused on the property that they ignore the other buyers entirely. That's a mistake. The property isn't going to change between inspections. But your understanding of the competitive landscape can.

When you combine accurate valuation, agent intelligence, and competitor awareness, you walk into an auction (or a private negotiation) with a massive information advantage. You know what the property is worth. You know how the agent is likely to behave. And you know who else wants it and how badly.

That's how professionals buy property. And it's available to anyone willing to do the preparation.